04566cam a2200481 i 4500 48185 48185 18074192 Nust 20170111154343.0 140320s2014 njua b 001 0 eng 2014000415 9780691159157 (hardcover : acidfree paper) 9780691159164 (softcover) DLC eng DLC rda DLC pcc e-gb--- e-gx--- e-ur--- n-us--- JF1525.I6 Y37 2014 327.12 YAR POL011000 HIS037070 bisacsh Yarhi-Milo, Keren, 1978- Knowing the adversary : leaders, intelligence, and assessment of intentions in international relations / Keren Yarhi-Milo. Princeton, New Jersey : Princeton University Press, 2014. xi, 355 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm. text txt rdacontent unmediated n rdamedia volume nc rdacarrier Princeton studies in international history and politics Includes bibliographical references (pages 259-344) and index. Theories of intentions and the problem of attention -- Indicators of Nazi Germany's intentions and the coming of World War II, 1934-39 -- British decision makers' perceptions of Nazi Germany's intentions -- The British intelligence community's assessments of Nazi Germany's intentions -- The Carter era and the collapse of detente, 1977-80 -- US decision makers' perceptions of Soviet intentions : the collapse of detente -- The US intelligence community's assessments of Soviet intentions : the collapse of detente -- Indicators of Soviet intentions and the end of the Cold War, 1985-88 -- US decision makers' perceptions of Soviet intentions : the end of the Cold War -- The US intelligence community's assessments of Soviet intentions : the end of the Cold War -- Summary and implications. " States are more likely to engage in risky and destabilizing actions such as military buildups and preemptive strikes if they believe their adversaries pose a tangible threat. Yet despite the crucial importance of this issue, we don't know enough about how states and their leaders draw inferences about their adversaries' long-term intentions. Knowing the Adversary draws on a wealth of historical archival evidence to shed new light on how world leaders and intelligence organizations actually make these assessments. Keren Yarhi-Milo examines three cases: Britain's assessments of Nazi Germany's intentions in the 1930s, America's assessments of the Soviet Union's intentions during the Carter administration, and the Reagan administration's assessments of Soviet intentions near the end of the Cold War. She advances a new theoretical framework--called selective attention--that emphasizes organizational dynamics, personal diplomatic interactions, and cognitive and affective factors. Yarhi-Milo finds that decision makers don't pay as much attention to those aspects of state behavior that major theories of international politics claim they do. Instead, they tend to determine the intentions of adversaries on the basis of preexisting beliefs, theories, and personal impressions. Yarhi-Milo also shows how intelligence organizations rely on very different indicators than decision makers, focusing more on changes in the military capabilities of adversaries. Knowing the Adversary provides a clearer picture of the historical validity of existing theories, and broadens our understanding of the important role that diplomacy plays in international security. "-- Provided by publisher. Intelligence service. International relations. World politics 20th century. Detente. POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General. bisacsh HISTORY / Modern / 20th Century. bisacsh Great Britain Foreign relations 1936-1945. Great Britain Foreign relations Germany. Germany Foreign relations Great Britain. United States Foreign relations 1945-1989. United States Foreign relations Soviet Union. Soviet Union Foreign relations United States. 7 cbc orignew 1 ecip 20 y-gencatlg ddc BK 0 0 ddc 0 0 NFIC NLS NLS CART 2017-01-11 2 1 327.12 YAR CL1734 2025-07-03 2025-06-03 2025-06-03 1 2017-01-11 BK